Rishi Sunak could win back nearly half of Reform’s supporters if he offered a referendum on bringing down migration, research found.
A study found Richard Tice’s party is backed by a large number of disgruntled Tories who believe the UK is worse than it used to be.
They are mainly middle-aged and older voters who live outside London and are deeply concerned about high migration levels, the Legatum Institute found.
Some 42 per cent would consider backing the Prime Minister at the general election if he took hardline action on migration, including asking the public if they backed cutting levels to 100,000 a year.
The report also said many switchers were concerned about net zero green policies and increasing globalisation.
It said: “Supporters of Reform UK are overwhelmingly concerned about illegal and legal immigration, which they perceive to be out-of-control and damaging Britain, though they also hold negative views of globalisation, net zero, and big business.
“Reform UK supporters are united by a general feeling of discontent with the UK’s current economic model, though their concerns about legal and illegal immigration are paramount.
“We suggest that unless these strong concerns about both illegal and legal immigration are addressed, concerns which are shared by much of the rest of the population, then there will remain ample space for Reform UK, or a party like it, in the years and decades ahead. »
The report was released as another study suggested Reform will cost the Conservatives 50 seats at the election.
Electoral Calculus analysed 18,000 voters across a number of polls and predicted the worst Tory defeat in history.
It put Labour on course to win 470 seats, which would reduce to 430 If Reform stood aside – something the party has ruled out doing.
Senior Tory Jeremy Quin insisted Mr Sunak will not be replaced before the election.
He said: “I’ve got no doubt about that and I have got no doubt that the election will be a lot more exciting than the opinion polls seem to suggest.”
A Tory insider warned that voting Reform will lead to a Labour government that is a “soft touch” on migration.
The source said: “There’s only party that can win the election that will be tough on immigration, and that’s Conservatives.
“So if Reform voters don’t want soft touch Labour, led by someone who used every trick in the book as a human rights lawyer to get around immigration rules, they should vote Conservative.”
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