Labour’s target to cut treatment waiting times to 18 weeks within five years will not be met due to a “fundamental mismatch” between demand and capacity, NHS leaders have warned.
The Government has set an ambition to ensure 92% of patients receive care within 18 weeks and pledged to deliver an extra two million appointments per year.
But a survey of 171 sector chiefs by NHS Providers ahead of its annual conference found 71% thought the target was unlikely to be achieved.
One NHS trust boss said: “If you think, there were seven million people on a waiting list, and as fast as you take them off, currently, we’re putting more people on.
“So that is a huge numbers game that’s going to cost a huge amount of money, unless you can do something to arrest the increase of people going on to waiting lists.
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“If you don’t create the capacity in primary care, in children’s services, in mental health, you can’t do the management of people properly in the community and stop them getting so acutely unwell.”
Another senior executive at a trust that provides community and mental health services warned that children were being let down amid “enormous” waiting lists.
The Government has said its 10-year plan for the health service will include shifting more care from hospitals into the community.
Almost all (98%) trust leaders supported the policy change, although 72% said they were worried about whether sufficient investment is being made in public health and sickness prevention in their local area.
Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, also warned that much of the £22.6billion for the NHS announced in the Budget would be needed “to cover significant costs that are already allocated”.
She added: “That includes pay rises, which are going to eat into that significantly.” The State of the Provider Sector survey also found that 96% of trust leaders were concerned about the forthcoming winter.
Problems with delayed discharges, social care capacity and the number of beds were the biggest concerns.
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