Russia is losing more troops than it is able to recruit, the first time this has happened for a sustained period since the outbreak of war. According to Western officials, the country has suffered at least 35,000 losses in the past three months, more than it has been able to recruit in the same time period.
Estimates indicate that the country is regularly losing more than 1,000 troops. Speaking on the anniversary of the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Defence Minister Al Carns confirmed that the country has now lost 1.25million people, a figure he believes is an “underestimation.” According to western officials, fewer Russian men were taking up financial incentives to join the military, placing strain on the Kremlin’s continued war.
Officials have revealed for the first time Russia in the past three months has suffered more battlefield losses, at least 35,000, than it has been able to recruit.
Russian forces are regularly losing more than 1,000 troops in one day to death and injury and are increasingly turning to allies for reinforcement.
A western official told reporters: “It’s not the first time the casualty rate has exceeded recruitment, but it’s the first time this has been sustained over three months,” adding that the losses as a “critical” moment that could have a significant impact if it continues.
They added: “That manpower calculus is really significant. It’s significant operationally and tactically, in terms of their ability to generate offensive power, but also, critically, it starts to raise the issue of coercive mobilisation within Russia.
“Currently, they are not recruiting from major cities. They are recruiting from rural areas and the Stans (a reference to Central Asian countries under Russian influence) in the belief that they will make money.”
Any introduction of coercive mobilisation could see Russia forced to recruit more heavily from major cities in the west of the country and increase the risk of domestic dissent.
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Defence Minister Al Carns stated that Russia has now lost more people than the United States did in the entirety of the Second World War, adding that 87% of casualties on the battlefield were now the result of drone attacks.
He added that the country has also lost 400 tanks, 10,000 armoured vehicles and has seen its “navy destroyed by a country without a navy”.
It is estimated that as many as 6,000 North Korean troops have been killed since their deployment to Ukraine, with very few captured due to their preference for suicide over surrender.
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