Millions of Labour voters are prepared to abandon their party and back the Greens or the Liberal Democrats to stop Nigel Farage’s Reform UK taking power. Up to 77% of Labour voters would vote tactically to stop Reform winning in their seats, according to research by YouGov.
Almost as many – up to 69% – would vote for the Lib Dems or Greens to stop the Conservatives winning their constituency. YouGov found Labour supporters were the “most enthusiastic tactical voters”. The research highlights the challenges Reform faces as the party pursues a majority in the next Westminster election.
Politico’s poll of polls this week put Reform on 28% with Labour and the Conservatives tied on 18%, ahead of the Greens (14%) and the Liberal Democrats (13%).
The YouGov research suggests Kemi Badenoch will struggle to get Labour supporters to back the Conservatives in seats where her party is in competition with Reform.
Researchers found: “Few Labour voters would back a Right-wing party in any situation, though 30% would be willing to back the Tories if only the Conservatives or Reform UK appeared to have a chance of winning their seat. This is against 35% who say they would stick with Labour and 17% who would abstain.”
Nearly six out of 10 Green supporters (57%) would vote for Sir Keir’s party in a fight between Labour and Reform UK. Only 44% would swing behind Labour in a seat where the choice is between this party and the Tories.
It is an almost identical story with the Liberal Democrats. While 58% would back Labour to thwart Reform, just 43% would vote for Sir Keir’s party to deny the Conservatives the seat.
The polling suggests that in seats where only the Conservatives or Reform UK stood a chance of winning, voters would back the Tories by 31% to 24%.
Up to 45% of Reform voters would back the Conservatives to stop Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens.
A Reform spokesman encouraged the party’s supporters to vote for it and to reject the Tories, saying: “There is only one chance of fixing broken Britain and that’s by voting Reform UK.
« The Conservatives had their chance, and after 14 years of catastrophic failure, no seat is safe for them anymore.
“Last year’s elections showed clearly that if you vote Reform, you’ll get Reform.”
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Up to 41% of Conservative supporters are prepared to back Reform to keep Labour or the Lib Dems out, and 32% would do so to prevent the Greens taking the seat.
When all voters were asked which party they would back in a Labour versus Reform battle, 35% opted for Sir Keir’s party and 31% for Mr Farage’s.
And when asked which party they could support in a Reform versus the Conservatives contest, 31% said they would back Mrs Badenoch’s party with 24% supporting the new party.
Seats where voters face a choice between the Tories and Labour are expected to be “few and far between on current polling”. YouGov says these constituencies are on a “knife-edge”, with 29% backing Labour and 28% the Conservatives.
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