The UK could be hit by its worst flu season in a decade as a mutated strain of the virus kick-started an « unusually early » surge in cases. Health officials issued an urgent « flu jab SOS » last week, urging people to get protected now amid the early wave of the virus.
NHS England said cases are already triple what was recorded at the same time last year, with weeks to go before the worst of the flu season typically bites. The latest UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data, published on Thursday (November 6), shows the percentage of people who tested positive for flu increased to 10.9% last week, compared with 8.2% the previous week and 6.1% the week before that.
The rise is being driven particularly by school-aged children between the ages of five and 14, with parents being reminded to book their child’s vaccine appointment to ensure they are protected ahead of the Christmas holidays. The warning follows the biggest flu season in Australia’s history, which the NHS warns is often a reliable predictor of what is to come for England.
« It’s highly likely it’s going to be a bad flu season and it’s going to happen quite soon – we’re already well into it, » Prof Christophe Fraser, from the Pandemic Sciences Institute at the University of Oxford, told the BBC. « There are indicators that this could be worse than some of the flu seasons we’ve seen in the last 10 years.”
Experts say the early flu season has been triggered by a sudden mutation of the influenza virus, potentially making the flu jab ‘less protective’.
Ed Hutchinson, Professor of Molecular and Cellular Virology at the University of Glasgow, said: « Influenza viruses evolve very quickly. Every year they are a bit different, which means that flu vaccines offer less protection over time – even last year’s flu vaccine won’t be a perfect match for this year’s flu. »
There are three influenza viruses circulating at any one time, Prof Hutchinson told the Manchester Evening News. These include two influenza A viruses, H1N1 and H3N2, and an influenza B virus.
He added: « The flu vaccine is usually a triple vaccine protecting you against all three of them, and the concern this year is that the H3N2 virus might have changed more than we expected, meaning that this component of the vaccine could be less protective than normal and cause a ‘bad flu year’. »
Experts fear thousands could be hospitalised amid this year’s early flu season. Commenting on the potential impact of a ‘bad flu year’ in the UK, Prof Hutchinson added: « This could be serious – although most cases of influenza are fairly mild – if unpleasant – the virus can cause really serious disease in at-risk groups and even, occasionally, in healthy children and adults.
« We might see a lot of pressure on hospitals, and higher than normal levels of illness and death, as a result. »
Vulnerable groups include children, the elderly, and those with underlying conditions that compromise their immune system, according to Dr Louisa James, lecturer in Immunology at Queen Mary University of London.
Despite concerns that the flu jab could offer less protection this year, Prof Hutchinson says it is ‘really important’ that those eligible do get the vaccine.
He said: « It is likely to ‘take the edge off’ disease and transmission even if it doesn’t prevent infection, and of course even if the H3N2 component is a poor match the vaccine is still able to protect you against the other two influenza viruses that are out there.
« You can also protect you and the people around you from influenza by washing your hands and by self-isolating or wearing a face mask if you think you might be unwell. »
Flu jabs are available for everyone aged 65 and over, those under 65 in clinical risk groups, care home residents and carers, pregnant women, close contacts of those who are immunosuppressed, and frontline health and social care workers as well as children.
The UKHSA reported last week that data shows less than a third (28.9%) of people with one or more long-term health conditions have had a flu vaccine, urging those eligible to get vaccinated as soon as possible.
Dr James added: « It takes up to two weeks after vaccination for your immune system to build the immune memory needed to protect you, so the sooner you are vaccinated, the better. »
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