Met Office says UK storm clusters that left four dead sparked by polar vortex winds | Weather | News

A series of savage storms that ripped through the UK, leaving four dead, homes flooded and a million homes without power, were made more likely by a « polar vortex », scientists have claimed. Storms Dudley, Eunice, and Franklin, all struck within days of each other in February 2022, and researchers at Leeds University attribute the freak weather events to unusual Arctic winds.

The academics believe a greater understanding of these wind patterns will help predict future catastrophic weather cycles.

Lead author Dr Ryan Williams, who carried out the research while at the University of Leeds, said: « Our research demonstrates the need to better understand the different drivers of the North Atlantic storm track, such as the state of the stratospheric polar vortex that is potentially predictable several weeks in advance.

He continued: « Being able to provide early warnings of possible severe weather is all the more pertinent with climate change, as there is evidence that major winter storms will become more intense, exacerbating impacts such as flooding and wind damage. »

The start of 2022 brought severe weather to the British Isles, Germany and Scandinavia. For the first time since 2015, when the Met Office started naming impactful cyclones, the UK was hit with three named storms in a week – Dudley, Eunice and Franklin. The storms ravaged swathes of the country, causing rivers like the Severn to burst their banks.

In total, seven storms were tracked near the UK during that month, the fourth highest number during the month of February since 1979.

Co-author Jeff Knight, the Science Lead in Monthly to Decadal Prediction in the UK Met Office, said: “It’s been understood for a while that the Arctic stratosphere can affect the type of winter we get in the UK, but these results show that it can even affect the occurrence of stormy spells within the season.

“An intense stratospheric polar vortex can now be recognised as a warning to forecasters of increased risks of damaging storms. This was likely seen in the most recent winter, around the time of Storm Eowyn in late January.”

Professor Amanda Maycock from the School of Earth and Environment who led the project, added: “The stormy conditions and strong stratospheric polar vortex during February 2022 bare parallels to other periods, such as what occurred in February 2020 and even what we have seen at the start of this year. Future work should investigate the connection we have found for other winters.”