Iran will ‘be gone by September’ unless it bends to Trump’s terms | World | News

Iran will be “gone by September” if it doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal and begin dismantling its programme, sources close to the Trump administration vowed last night. US President Donald Trump has already warned Iran “there will be bombing” if a deal is not struck, and has ordered more strategic air squadrons and a second carrier group to the Middle East.

“The United States and its partners remain committed to regional security and are prepared to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the region,” said Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell. And Israel – where war with Iran is a subject on everyone’s lips despite a reluctance to acknowledge it officially – is ready. “There is a sense of urgency,” said one leading right-leaning member of Israel’s Parliament, the Knesset.

They said: “Yes, there is a willingness to give President Trump time to try and get a good deal which we also prefer to war. But the military option is definitely real – it’s on the table and decision-making time is coming.”

A senior IDF source said simply, “Israel can no longer live with active terrorist threats”, suggesting that the prospect of Iran re-establishing its broken supply routes to proxies Hamas and Hezbollah was as much of a factor.

Many spoke of the feeling of “renewed confidence” in Tel Aviv. This is partly due to US President Donald Trump, whose administration has made it clear that, unlike with predecessor Joe Biden, there are no longer any “red lines “ for Israel to avoid in containing Iranian ambitions.

Israel’s strikes on October 26 last year – in retaliation to an « unprecedented » attack by Iran – eliminated most of the Islamic regime’s aerial defences in Syria, Iraq and Iran itself while also destroying Tehran’s ability to manufacture drones and mate warheads with missiles.

“These were main obstacles when considering a big aerial operation against Iran,” said an IDF source.

Tehran’s need to rebuild the damage to its Parchin military complex means that it has not been able to focus on re-establishing its air defences, experts say.

Also significant are revelations that the Iron Beam, which uses a laser to target drones and rockets, is now fully operational. This is the fourth layer to Israel’s anti-missiles shield, which already consists of the Iron Dome, to neutralise short-range rockets, the Devil’s Sling, which handles long-range ballistic and hypersonic missiles, and the Arrow 3, which wipes out missiles in the stratosphere.

With Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly rejecting the idea of direct talks with Trump over nuclear disarmament, even opposition MPs in Israel assume that conflict with its arch nemesis will happen in the autumn.

But there are factors that could push the timetable forward. These begin with any sense of rapid progress in Iran’s nuclear technology – not just in terms of breakout time but, crucially, also its ability to deliver nuclear warheads to its targets. Then there’s the prospect of retaliation against any Iranian strikes.

Last year’s decision by Tehran to launch a direct offensive against Israel was “a titular event”. One Israeli diplomatic source said: “Iran had been trying so hard over the last decade to get threats away from its soil by using proxies, that its decision to attack Israel last year was a titular event. Iran waited and contemplated, and in the end, sent a barrage of 300 ballistic missiles. Imagine 300 ballistic missiles. I think it’s unprecedented.”

There are also domestic Israeli issues, which might convince PM Benjamin Netanyahu to push the button sooner.

One could be the outcome of a planned inquiry into the Government’s failures in preventing Israel’s 9/11 – the attack by thousands of Hamas jihadis and other Palestinians on October 7, 2023.

“There is a possibility that the inquiry’s findings will humiliate Netanyahu and make his political position untenable, I think we can safely expect him to use an attack on Iran as a way of solidifying his political,” claimed one opposition MP, adding: “And the same will apply if his coalition fails.”

But experts say the controversial PM has “future-proofed” himself in both eventualities.

“It’s true that Netanyahu tends to lean harder on his identity as ‘Mr. Security’ when he is under increased pressure or increased scrutiny,” said regional expert Megan Sutcliffe, of Sibylline strategic risk group. « But while both these scenarios are potential trigger points, the setting up of any commission will face numerous roadblocks now that we’ve had ground operations resuming in Gaza. Also, Netanyahu is already working to future-proof himself from the potential fallout of a possible investigation into October 7 by potentially limiting its mandate or installing individuals in key positions who will preemptively limit that mandate.”

And threats to the stability of his coalition are now much lower since budget legislation was adopted, she added.

Though officially to “preserve our warfighting advantage in the Indo-Pacific”, there is little doubt that the decision to deploy an extra carrier – the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group – and more strategic bombers and refuelling tankers are intended as a show of prose to both Tehran and its last-remaining fully functional proxies, Ansar Allah or “Houthi” rebels in Yemen.

The US has promised to repeat recent air strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen, which are currently holding the important trade route to the Suez Canal hostage with attacks on Red Sea shipping.

These also act as a show of strength to the Houthi’s main sponsor, Iran’s notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

It is generally expected that Israel will do most of the “heavy lifting” when it comes to direct action against Iran, supported by US assets.

But the US could lead military action, said an Israeli Government source. “It’s entirely possible that Trump will decide to conduct any attack on Iran using primarily US forces. He has always been a hawk on Iran – the head of the snake in terms of regional instability – and he may decide that he wants it.

“What is certain is that, unless there is a radical shift in Iran’s posture, an attack will happen, it’s not a question of if, but when.”

Last night, a source connected to the Trump administration said: « There is a clarity of purpose here. Iran’s time is running out.

« If it doesn’t respond to President Trump’s generous terms in return for allowing a full audit of its nuclear capabilities and the dismantling of those capabilities, Iran will be gone by September. It’s as simple as that. »