When the BAFTA nominations were announced, many pundits (including this one) were calling 2026 one of the most predictable awards seasons in years. In one area, this continues to be the case: It’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. One Battle After Another took home six BAFTAs, including Best Film and continues to be odds on for Best Picture at the Oscars at 1-7. The acclaimed writer-director has been nominated 14 times at the Academy Awards without a single win and is finally expected to dominate on March 15; also taking home Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay as he did last night in London. However, there were three major shocks in the acting categories at the BAFTAs last night, which were largely expected to be shoo-ins across awards season.
The only upset that didn’t happen was Jessie Buckley winning Best Actress for playing Shakespeare’s wife in Hamnet. She’s now 1-50 to take home the Oscar with Rose Byrne on 14-1 behind her for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Meanwhile, Golden Globe winners – and expected Oscar winners – Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was expected to win Best Actor, Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) Best Supporting Actor and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) Best Supporting Actress. Yet they were all beaten in the categories by two Brits and a two-time Academy Award winner.
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) won Best Supporting Actress, while a totally shocked Robert Aramayo (I Swear) – who isn’t even Oscar-nominated – beat five American movie stars to Best Actor. Clearly, BAFTA voters were championing their fellow Brits last night. Meanwhile, Sean Penn (who wasn’t even in attendance) was the surprise recipient of Best Supporting Actor for his incredible performance as Colonel Steven J Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. As a result of these upsets, there’s been a shake-up in the Oscars odds race.
Since Aramayo isn’t Oscar nominated, Chalamet – whose movie Marty Supreme scored a joint BAFTA record of 11 nominations with no wins – remains odds-on for the Best Actor Oscar. In Best Supporting Actress, Taylor is still the favourite on 4-6, but Mosaku is just behind on 5-2, so it seems more of a toss-up there. Meanwhile, over at Best Supporting Actor, Skarsgård is no longer odds-on to win his first Oscar, but has been pushed back to 6-4. Whereas Penn is now 1-2 to win his third Academy Award for acting. If he wins, he will be one of just four men to achieve this feat. Of course, the Oscars odds race could shake up once again when we have the results of the Actors awards (formerly SAG) on the morning of March 2. But what’s certainly the case is this year’s awards season has just hotted up, especially as the final votes for the 98th Academy Awards on March 15 don’t open until February 26, before closing on March 5 after the Actors’ awards.
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