An expert has identified three viruses which may present a significant danger to humanity in 2026. These pathogens could be « poised » to trigger outbreaks in « unexpected places or in unexpected numbers ».
In an article for The Conversation, Patrick Jackson – assistant professor of infectious diseases at the University of Virginia – cautioned that the risk of large-scale illness is always present. He stated: « A new year might mean new viral threats. Old viruses are constantly evolving. A warming and increasingly populated planet puts humans in contact with more and different viruses.
« And increased mobility means that viruses can rapidly travel across the globe along with their human hosts. As an infectious diseases physician and researcher, I’ll be keeping an eye on a few viruses in 2026 that could be poised to cause infections in unexpected places or in unexpected numbers. »
Influenza A
Influenza A represents one of four recognised strains of influenza, commonly referred to as flu. Variants of influenza A are the sole influenza type documented to spark pandemics.
Professor Jackson issued a warning that we are « on the cusp of a pandemic » driven by influenza A. « Influenza A is a perennial threat, » he stated. »The virus infects a wide range of animals and has the ability to mutate rapidly. »
During 2009, an influenza pandemic stemming from the H1N1 variant – commonly referred to as swine flu – claimed over 280,000 lives globally within its first year. This strain continues to circulate to this day.
The specialist also raised alarm over the highly-pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype, commonly known as bird flu, which originates from influenza A. He explained: « This virus was first found in humans in southern China in 1997; wild birds helped spread the virus around the world. In 2024, the virus was found for the first time in dairy cattle in the U.S. and subsequently became established in herds in several states.
« The crossover of the virus from birds to mammals created major concern that it could become adapted to humans. Studies suggest there have already been many cow-to-human transmissions.
« In 2026, scientists will continue to look for any evidence that H5N1 has changed enough to be transmitted from human to human – a necessary step for the start of a new influenza pandemic. The influenza vaccines currently on the market probably don’t offer protection from H5N1, but scientists are working to create vaccines that would be effective against the virus. »
Mpox
According to Prof Jackson, mpox poses a threat that is « worldwide and liable to worsen ». Previously referred to as monkeypox, the pathogen predominantly affects rodents but periodically jumps to human hosts.
« Mpox is closely related to smallpox, and infection results in a fever and painful rash that can last for weeks, » he stated. « There are several varieties of mpox, including a generally more severe clade I and a milder clade II. »
A vaccine for mpox exists, though currently no proven treatments are available. During 2022, a worldwide outbreak of clade II mpox reached over 100 nations previously unfamiliar with the pathogen.
The outbreak was fuelled by person-to-person transmission via close physical contact, frequently during sexual activity. He continued: « While the number of mpox cases has significantly declined since the 2022 outbreak, clade II mpox has become established around the world.
« Several countries in central Africa have also reported an increase in clade I mpox cases since 2024. Since August 2025, four clade I mpox cases have occurred in the US, including in people who did not travel to Africa. » The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has confirmed that clade I mpox infections have been identified within the UK as well.
Oropouche virus
This insect-transmitted virus is, in Prof Jackson’s assessment, « poised to spread ». It is transmitted by mosquitoes and tiny biting midges.
Prof Jackson explained: « Most people with the virus experience fever, headache and muscle aches. The illness usually lasts just a few days, but some patients have weakness that can persist for weeks. The illness can also recur after someone has initially recovered. »
Initially discovered in Trinidad and Tobago, it has subsequently expanded across broader regions of South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. He stated: « Cases in the United States are usually among travellers returning from abroad. In 2026, Oropouche outbreaks will likely continue to affect travellers in the Americas.
« The biting midge that carries Oropouche virus is found throughout North and South America, including the southeastern United States. The range of the virus could continue to expand. »
The UKHSA has cautioned that a « small number » of travel-related cases of Oropouche have been documented in the USA and Europe, including Britain.
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