Much has been written about recent events in Syria, the fall of the Assad regime, and what might happen next. Will Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) under its leader Abu Mohammed al Julani be able to reconcile the multiple warring factions and sustain the continuity of Syria, or will it become another failed state like Iraq and Libya before it?
And will HTS return to its jihadist roots and turn its attention to Israel, which it has avowed to eradicate? There is no indication that it has changed its tune so far.
As Sir Iain Duncan Smith wrote in this paper just recently: “What is nonetheless clear is that HTS isn’t a coalition of well-meaning democrats and freedom lovers. HTS is a jihadist group with origins in Al Qaeda. It is highly likely that things could get even more volatile in the Middle East. I am sure Israel will not welcome HTS’s presence on its border, complicating things.
« We shouldn’t assume that the end of Assad and his brutal regime will be on balance any better for us at all. We have made that mistake too often in the past.”
I think he is dead right, which brings me to ask the question of what this all means to the UK. Is Britain now in the firing line?
Personally I can’t see any direct threat to the UK itself at the moment, although the usual caveats about terrorist activities etc apply. Also, given Britain’s close alliance with the USA and its Middle East ally Israel, there is probably a heightened possibility of risks and threats to our embassies, businesses, and citizens living abroad generally.
But much closer to the frontline, if you like, is the eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus, on which Britain maintains a significant presence.
This primarily concerns the Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which are British Overseas Territories on the island. These areas, which include British military bases and installations that were formerly part of the Crown colony of Cyprus, were retained by the British under the 1960 treaty of independence signed by the United Kingdom, Greece, Turkey and representatives from the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities.
The importance of the bases to the British is based on the strategic location of the island at the eastern edge of the Mediterranean and close to the Suez Canal and the Middle East; the ability to use the RAF base as staging post for military aircraft; and for training purposes.
Of particular relevance is RAF Akrotiri, from whence regular sorties have been launched over the past few years by RAF Typhoon jets against targets in Syria and elsewhere as part of Op Shader. It is also a well-used staging and refuelling post for both RAF and USAF aircraft is support of general operations in the region, including the delivery of support to Israel and humanitarian relief supply to Gaza.
To the east of Akrotiri lies Dhekalia, a base redolent of a post-Empire sleepy military outpost but whose main significance lies in the electronic intelligence gathering station at Ayios Nikolaos.
To cut to the chase, declassified documents show that the station here might be the largest GCHQ site outside the UK, and documents released by American-Russian former intelligence contractor and whistleblower Edward Snowden indicate that in recent years half the cost of running the station is funded by the US National Security Agency (NSA).
In other words, GCHQ and NSA use Ayios Nikolaos for their global eavesdropping operation. The distance between Cyprus and Syria, whose shores are now in the control of a UK and USA-proscribed terrorist organisation, is less than 300 miles, well within drone and missile range.
Now, I’m sure it would have been purely coincidental that Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer made the first official UK visit for more than 50 years to Cyprus earlier this week, during which he stopped off at Akrotiri to tell our boys and girls in uniform what a good job they were doing.
I’m not sure it is quite so coincidental that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has just announced a programme for the enhancement of security at RAF Akrotiri, a contract to run from May to December next year. It may be, of course, that this is part of a long-planned programme, but the timing seems interesting.
That said, in stark terms the fall of Assad and his replacement, temporary or otherwise, by a jihadist-influenced HTS has upped the ante as far as the security of British interests and personnel in the Middle East is concerned.
And we know that the price of peace is eternal vigilance and, sadly, always to be prepared for war.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
Source link
